According
to the latestrelease (at 1100 Hrs. IST)by the National Weather Forecasting
Centre/Cyclone Warning Divisionof the India Meteorological Department:
The Super
Cyclonic Storm‘AMPHAN’ (pronounced as UM-PUN) over Westcentral Bay of
Bengal moved north-northeastwards with a speed of 15 kmph during past 06 hours
and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of 19th May, 2020 near latitude 16.0°N and
longitude 86.8°E over Westcentral Bay of Bengal about 480 km nearly
south of Paradip (Odisha), 630 km south-southwest of Digha (West Bengal) and
750 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh).
It is very likely to move north-northeastwards across northwest Bay of Bengal
and cross West Bengal – Bangladesh coasts between Digha (West Bengal) and
Hatiya Islands (Bangladesh) close to Sundarbans during the Afternoon / Evening
of 20th May 2020 with maximum sustained wind speed of 155-165 kmph gusting
to 185 kmph.
The
Super Cyclone ‘AMPHAN’ is now being continuously tracked by the Doppler Weather
Radar (DWR) at Vishakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh).
Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:
|
Date/Time(IST)
|
Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
|
Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)
|
Category of cyclonic disturbance
|
|
19.05.20/0830
|
16.0/86.8
|
215-225 gusting to 245
|
Super Cyclonic Storm
|
|
19.05.20/1130
|
16.8/87.0
|
200-210 gusting to 230
|
Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm
|
|
19.05.20/1730
|
17.4/87.1
|
190-200gusting to 220
|
Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm
|
|
19.05.20/2330
|
18.3/87.4
|
180-190 gusting to 210
|
Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm
|
|
20.05.20/0530
|
19.6/87.8
|
170-180 gusting to 200
|
Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm
|
|
20.05.20/1730
|
21.7/88.4
|
145-155 gusting to 170
|
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
|
|
21.05.20/0530
|
23.8/89.1
|
75-85 gusting to 95
|
Cyclone
|
|
21.05.20/1730
|
25.9/89.9
|
40-50 gusting to 60
|
Depression
|
(1) Heavy
rainfall Warning:
Odisha
Rainfall
has commenced over coastal Odisha since early hours of today. Rainfall
intensity is likely to increase gradually and become maximum during 19th night
to 20th afternoon.
Light
to moderate rainfall is very likely at most places of coastal Odisha with heavy
to very heavy rainfall at isolated places Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara and Bhadrak
Districts and isolated heavyfalls over Jajpur, Balasore,Cuttack, Mayurbhanj,
Khordha & Puri districts on 19th May and isolated heavy to very heavy
rainfall at isolated places over north coastal Odisha (Jagatsinghpur, Bhadrak
and Keonjhargarh Districts) on 20th May 2020.
West
Bengal
Coastal
districts of Gangetic West Bengal (East Medinipur, South & North 24
Parganas) are likely to experience light to moderate rainfall at many places
commencing from today, the 19th May afternoon.Rainfall intensity is likely
to increase gradually and become maximum on 20thMay. Rainfall at most
places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places & extremely heavy
falls at isolated places likely over Gangetic West Bengal (east & west
Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata and adjoining
districts)on 20th May and isolated heavy rain over interior districts on
21st May, 2020.
Sub-Himalayan
West Bengal and Sikkim
Light
to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few
places over Malda & Dinajpur districts on 20th May and over most of
the districts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 21st May, 2020.
Assam
& Meghalaya
Light
to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few
places over the western districts of Assam & Meghalaya on 21st May.
(2)
Wind warning
West
Bengal & Odisha
Squally
wind speed reaching 45 to 55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is prevailing along &
off south Odisha coast. It is very likely to increase and extend
northwards becoming 55 to 65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph northwards to north Odisha
coast by today afternoon and along & off West Bengal coast by tonight.
The
wind speed will gradually increase becoming gale wind speed reaching 75 to 85
kmph gusting to 95 kmph from 20th morning along and off north Odisha
(Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore and Mayurbhanj districts) coast
and West Bengal (east & west Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas,
Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata Districts) coast. It will gradually increase
thereafter becoming 100 to 110 kmph gusting to 125 kmph along & off the
above mentioned districts of North Odisha.
Gale
wind speed reaching 155 to 165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph very likely along &
off east Medinipur and north & south 24 Parganas districts and 110-120 kmph
gusting to 130 kmph over Kolkata, Hoogli, Howrah and West Medinipur Districts
of West Bengal during the time of landfall (20th afternoon to night).
Squally
wind speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph likely to prevail over Puri,
Khordha, Cuttack, Jajpur districts of Odisha during 20th May 2020.
Deep
Sea area
Gale
wind speed reaching 225-235 gusting to 255 kmph is prevailing over westcentral
Bay of Bengal. It is likely to prevail over northern parts of central Bay of
Bengal and adjoining North Bay of Bengal during 19thMay.
Gale
wind speed reaching 180-190 gusting 210 kmph over north Bay of Bengal from 19th afternoon.
It will gradually decrease becoming 165-175 kmph gusting to 195 kmphby 20th afternoon.
(3)
Sea condition:
Sea
condition is Phenomenal and is likely to continue for next 12 hours over
southern parts of Westcentral Bay of Bengal. It will become Phenomenal over
northern parts of central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Bay of Bengal on 19th May
and over north Bay of Bengal on 20th May 2020.
(4)
Fishermen Warning
The
fishermen are advised not to venture into west-central and adjoining central
parts of south Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours, into central Bay of Bengal
and North Bay of Bengal during 19th to 20th May 2020.
Also,
fishermen are advised not to venture into North Bay of Bengal along and off
North Odisha, West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coasts till 20th May 2020.
(5)Storm
Surge expected
Storm
Surge of about 4-5 meters above Astronomical Tide is likely to inundate low
lying areas of south & north 24 Parganas and about 3-4 meters over the low
lying areas of East Medinipur District of West Bengal during the time of
Landfall. (Figure enclosed)
(6)Damage
Expected and Action suggested
(a)
West Bengal (east Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli,
Kolkata districts)
Damage
Expected:
Extensive
damage to all types of kutcha houses, some damage to old badly managed Pucca
structures. Potential threat from flying objects.
Extensive
uprooting of communication and power poles.
Disruption
of rail/road link at several places.
Extensive
damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards.
Blowing
down of Palm and coconut trees.
Uprooting
of large bushy trees.
Large
boats and ships may get torn from their moorings.
Fishermen
Warning & Action Suggested:
Total
suspension of fishing operations till 20th May 2020.
Diversion
or suspension of rail and road traffic.
People
in affected areas to remain indoors. Mobilise evacuation from Low lying areas.
Movement
in motor boats and small ships not advisable.
(b)
Odisha (Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore, Jajpur & Mayurbhanj)
Damage
Expected:
Total
destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses. Potential
threat from flying objects.
Bending/
uprooting of power and communication poles.
Major
damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Minor disruption of railways, overhead power
lines and signalling systems.
Widespread
damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards, falling of green coconuts and
tearing of palm fronds. Blowing down of bushy trees like mango.
Small
boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.
Fishermen
Warning & Action Suggested:
Total
suspension of fishing operations till 20th May 2020.
Diversion
or suspension of rail and road traffic.
People
in affected areas to remain indoors.
Movement
in motor boats and small ships not advisable.
Kindly
visit www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in and www.mausam.imd.gov.in for updates
on the system.
Courtesy: pib.gov.in
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