The rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of the 2014 southwest monsoon season is likely to be 95% of PLA with a model error of ±8%, said Dr Jitendra Singh, Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Science & Technology and Earth Sciences, MoS in Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), Personnel, Public Grievances and Pensions, Space & Atomic Energy, while addressing media persons at Ministry of Earth Sciences Headquarters here in New Delhi today (12.08.2014). He was accompanied by Dr. Shailesh Nayak ,Secretary Ministry of Earth Sciences and Dr. L.S. Rathode, DG, India Meteorological Department on the occasion.
Dr Jitendra Singh said the latest estimate suggest the 2014 southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 87% of the LPA with a model error of ±4%.
Further elaborating the data the minister said region wise the latest estimate suggest, the 2014 southwest monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 76% of LPA over North-west India, 89% of LPA over Central India, 87% of LPA over South Peninsula and 93% of LPA over North-East India with a model error of ± 8 %.
Background and details of the 5- Parameter Operational Model
The minister said this year, the first stage forecast for the season (June- September) rainfall for the country as a whole was issued on 24th April and the update was issued on 9th June. The April and June forecasts for the rainfall over the country as a whole were 95% ± 5 % & 93% ± 4 % of LPA respectively. Now the forecast for the rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half of the 2014 monsoon season has been prepared by using a new Principal Component Regression (PCR) Model based on 5 predictors. The model error of the 5-parameter PCR model is 8% of LPA. The long period average (LPA) of the rainfall over the country as whole for the second half of the monsoon season (August to September) based on the 1951-2000 period is 43.5cm (49% of the average season rainfall). The coefficient of variation (C.V) of the rainfall time series is 15%.. Hence, there is no need to get panicked, Dr. Jitendra Singh added.
Dr Jitendra Singh said the latest estimate suggest the 2014 southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 87% of the LPA with a model error of ±4%.
Further elaborating the data the minister said region wise the latest estimate suggest, the 2014 southwest monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 76% of LPA over North-west India, 89% of LPA over Central India, 87% of LPA over South Peninsula and 93% of LPA over North-East India with a model error of ± 8 %.
Background and details of the 5- Parameter Operational Model
The minister said this year, the first stage forecast for the season (June- September) rainfall for the country as a whole was issued on 24th April and the update was issued on 9th June. The April and June forecasts for the rainfall over the country as a whole were 95% ± 5 % & 93% ± 4 % of LPA respectively. Now the forecast for the rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half of the 2014 monsoon season has been prepared by using a new Principal Component Regression (PCR) Model based on 5 predictors. The model error of the 5-parameter PCR model is 8% of LPA. The long period average (LPA) of the rainfall over the country as whole for the second half of the monsoon season (August to September) based on the 1951-2000 period is 43.5cm (49% of the average season rainfall). The coefficient of variation (C.V) of the rainfall time series is 15%.. Hence, there is no need to get panicked, Dr. Jitendra Singh added.
He said the 5-parameter PCR model has also been used to prepare probability forecasts for the pre-defined 3 (tercile) categories of rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season. These are below normal (less than 94% of LPA), near normal (94-106% of LPA), above normal (greater than 106% of LPA). The tercile categories have equal climatological probabilities (33.33% each). Based on latest rainfall scenario and forecast for the second half of the season, the update for the season rainfall over the country as a whole and four geographical regions have also been prepared
SST conditions in Pacific and Indian Oceans
During June through mid-July, the observed ENSO conditions remained near the borderline of a weak El Niño condition in the ocean, but the atmosphere so far has shown little involvement. The latest forecasts from most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continued warming trend, with a transition to sustained El Niño conditions during the next 2-3 months. There is about 50% chance of weak El Niño conditions to develop during the remaining part of the summer monsoon season.
In addition to ENSO conditions over Pacific, other factors such as the Indian Ocean Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have also some influence on Indian monsoon. The assessment of latest forecasts from various coupled models suggests moderate probability of the development of a weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole event during the second half of the monsoon season.
Monsoon Mission Experimental Coupled Dynamical Forecast System
The experimental forecast based on the coupled dynamical model forecasting system suggest that the monsoon rainfall during the second half (August to September) of the 2014 monsoon season averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 96% of long period model average (LPMA) with 95% of LPMA during August and 98% of LPMA during September.
Forecast for the Rainfall During the Second Half of the 2014 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall and Updates for the Seasonal Forecasts
(a) Quantitatively, rainfall for the country as a whole during the period August to September, 2014 is likely to be 95% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.
(b) Probability of below normal (less than 94% LPA) and normal (94-106% of LPA) rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half (August to September) is 46% and 43%, respectively.
(c) The rainfall during August is likely to be normal (96 ± 9% of LPA) as was forecasted in June.
(d) The season rainfall (June to September) over the country as a whole is likely to be 87% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%. There is 68% probability for the season rainfall over the country as a whole to be deficient ( less than 90% of LPA). The probability for below normal rainfall (90-96% of LPA) is 24%.
(e) Region wise, the season (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 76% of LPA over North-West India, 89% of LPA over Central India, 87% of LPA over South Peninsula, and 93% of LPA over North-East India all with a model error of ± 8 %.
Courtesy: pib.nic.in
SST conditions in Pacific and Indian Oceans
During June through mid-July, the observed ENSO conditions remained near the borderline of a weak El Niño condition in the ocean, but the atmosphere so far has shown little involvement. The latest forecasts from most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continued warming trend, with a transition to sustained El Niño conditions during the next 2-3 months. There is about 50% chance of weak El Niño conditions to develop during the remaining part of the summer monsoon season.
In addition to ENSO conditions over Pacific, other factors such as the Indian Ocean Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have also some influence on Indian monsoon. The assessment of latest forecasts from various coupled models suggests moderate probability of the development of a weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole event during the second half of the monsoon season.
Monsoon Mission Experimental Coupled Dynamical Forecast System
The experimental forecast based on the coupled dynamical model forecasting system suggest that the monsoon rainfall during the second half (August to September) of the 2014 monsoon season averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 96% of long period model average (LPMA) with 95% of LPMA during August and 98% of LPMA during September.
Forecast for the Rainfall During the Second Half of the 2014 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall and Updates for the Seasonal Forecasts
(a) Quantitatively, rainfall for the country as a whole during the period August to September, 2014 is likely to be 95% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.
(b) Probability of below normal (less than 94% LPA) and normal (94-106% of LPA) rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half (August to September) is 46% and 43%, respectively.
(c) The rainfall during August is likely to be normal (96 ± 9% of LPA) as was forecasted in June.
(d) The season rainfall (June to September) over the country as a whole is likely to be 87% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%. There is 68% probability for the season rainfall over the country as a whole to be deficient ( less than 90% of LPA). The probability for below normal rainfall (90-96% of LPA) is 24%.
(e) Region wise, the season (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 76% of LPA over North-West India, 89% of LPA over Central India, 87% of LPA over South Peninsula, and 93% of LPA over North-East India all with a model error of ± 8 %.
Courtesy: pib.nic.in
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